Less than one year since President Donald Trump’s inauguration, many in the media have already begun to offer their predictions about the 2028 presidential election. The next election will be one without an incumbent, which means that both the Democrats and the Republicans will be selecting new candidates to run for president. While this has generated much speculation over who might be nominated, the Democrats seem to have already found their frontrunner: California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Newsom rose to political prominence as mayor of San Francisco, leading the city from 2004-2011. He has been the governor of California since 2018, but due to state term limits he cannot be reelected in 2026 when his second term ends. However, many suspect that he is not quite finished with his political career, and that he is planning to run for the presidency in 2028. 

Speculation about Newsom’s presidential ambitions first emerged following the 2024 election when he launched a podcast called This is Gavin Newsom. The podcast aimed to reframe Newsom as a centrist on many key voter issues, distancing him from the California liberal stereotype. The governor has spoken with numerous conservative political figures on This is Gavin Newsom, including Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon, which many have interpreted as his attempt to show his open-mindedness and moderate policies.

Newsom has also been raising his national profile through public attacks on the Trump administration. He regularly mocks and trolls the administration on social media, just as Trump does to his adversaries. This has put Newsom at the center of not just the Democratic party, but of anti-Trump sentiment nationwide. 

The governor was also a leading figure in California’s 2025 special election on Prop 50, a redistricting initiative intended to counteract far-right gerrymandering in Texas. Prop 50 won in a landslide, contributing to a boost in Newsom’s approval ratings — a survey from the Public Policy Institute of California showed an increase of 10 points, from 46 percent in June, to 56 percent currently. His intentions seem clear: to expand his appeal to all those opposed to Trump, across party lines, setting himself up for a presidential run in 2028.

Though Newsom has become more nationally known, his potential candidacy is especially significant to California youth, many of whom have grown up with Newsom as their governor and will be eligible to vote for president for the first time in 2028.  Despite his familiarity, for some of these young Californians, the prospect of Newsom as president is not particularly inspiring. Although his role as California governor makes him well-suited to be commander-in-chief of the United States, many young California voters feel that his leadership style and his record are unimpressive. 

“He hasn’t made any major changes in California,” said Mimi Kemp, a Terra Linda High School sophomore who will be a first-time voter in the 2028 election. Kemp pointed to the homeless crises in San Francisco and Los Angeles, issues which have remained urgent and unsolved throughout Newsom’s time as governor. 

Ame McCoy, a TL junior and another soon-to-be first-time voter, similarly found the homeless crisis in California to be a weak point for Newsom. “He hates homeless people,” McCoy said. Beyond the issue of homelessness, McCoy is unimpressed with Newsom’s job as governor. “Obviously he has done good things but [overall] I would say… he’s not doing great.”

Further, Newsom’s drift toward the political center — his attempt to appeal to more moderate voters — has actually alienated some of his young, progressive supporters. In a conversation with Charlie Kirk on his podcast earlier this year, Newsom revealed that he thinks it is unfair for transgender athletes to participate in women’s sports. This apparent reversal of support for the LGBTQ community left many young people feeling betrayed and confused. 

Newsom’s identity and his establishment within the world of politics have also deterred many young voters who are hoping to see new, diverse politicians representing the next era of governance. “I want a woman, a person of color, a young person,” McCoy said. 

Gavin Newsom has to tread a fine line over the next few years if he plans to run for president. Thus far, he has focused on appealing to moderates across the country, but it seems he still has to win over a demographic he may have taken as a given: the growing number of young, Californian, forward-thinking voters who have the potential to dictate the future of politics and governance in the United States.